Handicapping the Potential 2024 Non-Trump GOP Field

According to the folks at the Republican polling outlet Echelon Insights, in October 2020, 59% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said that they identify as Trump voters first, whereas only 30% said they consider themselves to be Republicans first.

Despite all the talk about how most Republicans believe that Trump really won, those numbers converged in November with 46% identifying with Trump and 43% with the party. These numbers suggest that despite all the talk, Trump’s grip on the party, which is assumed to be iron tight by people who both love and hate him, is perhaps less so.

Those numbers are even lower now in the aftermath of the January 6 riots. Those who identify with the party now outnumber those who identify with Trump 48–38. Similarly, Echelon also finds that support for a Trump campaign in 2024 has dropped among Republicans from 65% in December to 45% in January.

That number is practically identical to the percentage Trump received in the hotly contested 2016 primary,(44.95%) although that number is somewhat skewed because of the uncontested nature of the later primaries.

There is no reason to believe this trend won’t continue. Trump is already not in the news cycle 24/7 and once Impeachment 2.0 is behind us, he will be even less so, especially if he remains banned from certain social media platforms. That coupled with the fact that Democrats control all three elected parts of the government will lead to the continued erosion of his popularity since he can now be more easily judged on his own merits without having to justify him as better than the left or the news media.

All this to wonder where the Republican Party goes from here. Who will carry the torch in 2024? Talking about an election well into the future — we are still almost two years away from the midterms — can be exhausting, but since Trump and the direction of the GOP seems to be the talk of the political world right now, why not examine the field of potential candidates?

Included in this list are those named in this December article from Politico, plus a couple others. Some on this list have said they have no intention of running, but that is what they all say right up until they do. Let us begin.

• Greg Abbott: Governor of Texas

Pros: Abbott comes from the largest red state in the country and as a governor may will be able to claim he is not a Swamp rat. As someone who is bound to a wheelchair, Abbott also has an inspirational story that could appeal to independent voters who do not spend a lot of time worrying about policy.

Cons: Abbott’s record as governor is solid, but does not stand out against the competition; he lacks the “wow factor.” Additionally, as governor of the state that launched that ridiculous lawsuit — a lawsuit he backed — against other states that deserved to die in a fire in the aftermath of the election, a Democrat could potentially use that against him in the bid to win over moderates.

Rating: Wild Card

• Tom Cotton: Senator from Arkansas

Pros: Cotton could easily present himself as the foreign policy intellectual of the group, and nothing could unite the competing party factions more than someone who makes countering China is calling card. Outside of foreign affairs, if the party wants “Trump without Trump,” he could potentially be the man to do so, as he has claimed Trump’s success came from bucking GOP orthodoxies. The events of January 6 proved Cotton to be a man of principle in unequivocally rejecting rejecting mob violence, regardless of the mob’s politics and his decision to decision to affirm the election on that day opened the door for potentially week-kneed Republicans to come along and do the right thing. Even if he goes nowhere in the primary, the country should be thank him for ensuring that over 90 senators voted to affirm the Joe Biden’s win.

Cons: The adage that voters do not care about foreign policy unless there is a war going on, will not change in 2024. Cotton may be a China hawk, but being a China hawk will be a pre-requisite for any Republican in 2024, so there will be nothing too special about his candidacy on the policy agenda front.

Rating: Wild Card

• Ted Cruz: Senator from Texas

Pros: Cruz is still well liked among the party’s base and is a tremendous debater who can win a debate over the battle of ideas with anyone the left throws at him. He can appeal to both the populist who hate everything about D.C. and establishment politics and more wonkish conservatives who spend all day analyzing various charts and graphs.

Cons: Cruz already ran in 2016 and by 2024 he may well be regarded as yesterday’s news. He also agreed to argue Trump and Texas’ post-election cases which could hurt him with more moderate voters and objecting to electors from Arizona and Pennsylvania on the day of the insurrection on Capitol Hill is likely to be a bridge too far for many independents.

Rating: Also Ran

• Ron DeSantis: Governor of Florida

Pros: Before the pandemic DeSantis was a widely conservative governor of a large swing state. He is popular with the those who believes that COVID restrictions have gone too far and needlessly caused tremendous damage to the economy. His response to COVID-19 has led to many battles with the media, and if Republican voters like anything, it is a candidate who is not afraid from going toe-to-toe with the media. Republican candidates are usually judged on three things: their perceived electability, their ideological credentials, and their willingness and ability to stand up to the press. DeSantis checks all three boxes.

Cons: Fair or not, DeSantis’ COVID record will be something he will have to answer for. DeSantis is not anti-mask, just anti-mask mandate, but perception is reality and that may cause people to shy away from him because the anti-mask crowd is a niche constituency that is Very Online. Whether he can overcome this will be tested in 2022 when he is up for re-election, if the people of his own state refuse to re-hire him, it will be hard to convince primary voters that he can win nationwide.

Rating: Top Tier

• Doug Ducey: Governor of Arizona

Pros: Ducey provided much needed integrity during the post-election fiasco, being a faithful follower of his state’s laws to the discontent of many, including the state GOP chair. As Arizona has turned blue under that chair’s horrendous leadership, Ducey provides a reminder that Republicans can win in places like Arizona and if Republicans want a more normal candidate, Ducey fits that bill.

Cons: Even most voters overlook the aftermath of the election, like Cotton, there is nothing to separate Ducey from his potential rivals.

Rating: Wild Card

• Joni Ernst: Senator from Iowa

Pros: A senator from swing state in Middle America and the first female combat veteran to serve in the Senate, Ernst has a great story to tell that has the potential to appeal to non-ideological voters in a general election.

Cons: Before reaching the general, one must win the primary and Ernst will have a difficult time separating from the field.

Rating: Also Ran

• Nikki Haley: Former Ambassador to the United Nations, Former Governor of South Carolina

Pros: CNN asked in 2018 “Is Nikki Haley the most popular politician in America?” How many Republicans can say that CNN has said that about them? And why not? Haley is a charismatic and likeable personality who has executive and foreign policy experience, something most governors or former governors who want to be president are criticized for. She has proven she can stand up for herself against sexist smears from people like Michael Wolff that will come from certain quarters who cannot imagine the first female president being a Republican.

Cons: That CNN article was written while Haley was at Turtle Bay, once she becomes a partisan candidate her approval ratings among Democrats will crater. She has also been away from electoral politics for several years now and she risks becoming Marco Rubio 2.0, a candidate who is said to be charismatic with broad appeal, who is a combination of a solid conservative and an establishmentarian, but whose campaign lacks a raison d’etre beyond checking some identity politics boxes which Republicans claim to be above.

Rating: Top Tier

• Josh Hawley: Senator from Missouri

Pros: Hawley is clearly in-tune with what the base of the party wants and understands that if Republicans are to be successful in presidential elections, a return to obsessing over tax cuts and cutting red tape, while good in and of themselves, are not defining issues that can carry the party to victory by themselves. He knows many conservatives will support whoever is the most anti-elitist, and he intends to be that man.

Cons: It is clear to anyone who has observed Hawley ever since he was elected in 2018 that the man wants to be president and such a naked ambition for power is extremely off putting. This was true even before the events of January 6, but him being the first to announce he would object to certain electors in the Senate along with this photo will be the millstone around his neck for the rest of his life and that by itself could cost him in a general election. Beyond all that, on the policy front, he comes across as a conservative nanny state-r who enjoys telling others what to do.

Rating: Wild Card

• Larry Hogan: Governor of Maryland

Pros: If, over the coming years, the party decides Trump was a mistake, Larry Hogan is the most anti-Trump of all the names that have been thrown about. As governor of a blue state he can show to the country that party has moved beyond the last four years.

Cons: The problem for Hogan is not just that he’s anti-Trump, but appears deeply out of touch with the party that exists outside of the Northeast in a way that would prove to be too much even in a pre-Trump world. From guns, to abortion, to Trump’s Supreme Court appointments, it seems as if Hogan was not just anti-Trump, but anti-GOP and no amount of talking up Ronald Reagan will shield him from that criticism. Furthermore, his “Republican governor from a blue state who can appeal to independents” schtick is the exact same strategy Republicans tried and failed miserably with in 2012 that led to Trump four years later.

Rating: Wrong Party

• Kristi Noem: Governor of South Dakota, Former Representative from South Dakota

Pros: Thrust into the national spotlight during Trump’s 4th of July visit to Mount Rushmore, Noem has gained popularity for being willing to speak on culture war issues, that many conservatives now believe are the key to victory. She also understands the concerns some conservatives have with COVID-related shutdowns and the constitutionality of orders and to that end, South Dakota’s unemployment rate is now lower than it was pre-pandemic. She can tout her competence as an executive by highlighting the fact that South Dakota is among the top in the nation when it comes to vaccine administration.

Cons: Noem faces the same challenges that DeSantis faces, mainly a media that has already tarred her with being a COVID-denier who hates science, but being governor of South Dakota does not have the same appeal to primary voters as being governor of a large swing state like Florida, making her current popularity Very Online. Speaking of popularity, in 2018 she received just 51% in a very red state and that was before the pandemic, like DeSantis, her 2022 re-election will be one to watch.

Rating: Wild Card

• Mike Pence: Former Vice President, Former Governor of Indiana, Former Representative from Indiana

Pros: A solid conservative with experience in legislative and executive as well as state and federal roles, Pence could use his tenure as Trump’s VP to unite the disparate wings of the party. His dignified handling of the events leading up to and on January 6 might be able to bring voters who liked Trump’s policies, but not the man, back to the party.

Cons: The criticism Pence received from Trump on January 6 that he was a traitor may stick. If it were to stick, that would be a great shame, but politics is not always fair. Additionally, Pence’s soft-spoken nature may make it difficult to excite the base or win over independents who are not policy wonks.

Rating: Top Tier

• Mike Pompeo: Former Secretary of State, Former Director of the CIA, Former Representative from Kansas

Pros: A man who would have among the top foreign policy credentials in the field, Pompeo could claim that he has the experience and knowledge to guide American foreign policy into it’s next phase of history. As Trump’s top diplomat, he burnished his credentials as a Trump loyalist who led the country’s shift towards a more realistic view of China, arguably the issue that both the populist and think tank class of the party agree on most.

Cons: The only person clamoring for a Mike Pompeo candidacy is Mike Pompeo and just like Tom Cotton, he is going to realize that primary voters, even GOP China hawks, do not vote solely on foreign policy during peacetime.

Rating: Also Ran

• Marco Rubio: Senator from Florida

Pros: Rubio brings that big swing state appeal whose personal story of family fleeing communism could continue the GOP’s inroads with anti-socialist Latino voters. Rubio, at his best, is one who can speak to both populists and intellectuals in a way that most others can’t.

Cons: Will the real Marco Rubio, please stand up? Is it the anti-establishment Tea Party candidate from 2010, the senator who tried to keep a foot in both camps during the Obama years while perusing comprehensive immigration reform, or the one who was recently advocated for a less fiscally dogmatic party who said said Biden’s current immigration plan is a “non-starter”?

Rating: Also Ran

• Rick Scott: Senator from Florida, former Governor of Florida

Pros: Scott brings both legislative and judicial experience from a key battleground state.

Cons: Like, Mike Pompeo, nobody really wants a Rick Scott candidacy, but at least he seems to realize that. He isn’t even the most likely senator named Scott to get the nomination. Seriously, he’s only this list because he was listed in the above Politico article and because as a vice presidential candidacy with Tim Scott at the top of the ticket would bring allow commentators to wonder what Scott-Scott 2024 or the Great Scott ticket will do for America.

Rating: Also Ran

• Tim Scott: Senator from South Carolina

Pros: Speaking of Tim Scott, the junior senator from South Carolina brings solid conservative credentials and a life story that could appeal to a wide range of voters. Scott brings that conservative perspective to the issues, including those Republicans generally do not spend a whole lot of time focusing on, such as education and race issues and does so with credibility as he is proof that the Republican Party is just for white people. If, in the aftermath of the pandemic, Republicans want to make entrenched teacher’s unions the face of the opposition, Scott is the man for the job.

Cons: Scott has the same problem that someone like Amy Klobuchar had in 2020, a potential second or third choice, but nobody’s top pick. Scott has proven he is willing to be the Republican who leads the party on police-community relations policy, but a campaign around that may not be of great benefit as some conservatives may be skeptical while its appeal to Democrats will not be nearly enough to get them to crossover.

Rating: Wild Card